Information on the thesis

Smyrnova K.Ye. Political Revolutions and Regime Transformation in the Arab World. – the manuscript.

The dissertation on completition of scientific degree of Candidate of Political Sciences in the specialty 23.00.02. — Political institutions and processes. – Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Lviv, 2016.

The dissertation is devoted to the study of revolutionary movements and transformation of political regimes in the Arab countries in the period from the end of 2010 – beginning of 2011, and attempts to explain the revolutionary changes in Ukraine (2004 and 2013-2014.).

Based on the theories of revolution, social movements and transition the paper studies the shared and specific preconditions and precipitants behind the formation of the revolutionary movements in six Arab countries: Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, Libya and Syria. Non-ideological nature, focus on political pressure aimed at changes not gaining of power, network structures as basis for self-organization and marginal role of political opposition, secular the same as Islamist, are accentuated as essential features of revolutions.

The factors that have determined the specificity of mobilization and organizational forms of resistance activity and the reasons for differentiation of the revolutionary movements’ trajectoris are analyzed. Among them, there are ethno-confessional structure peculiarities, the extent of authoritarian regime repressive nature and its control over coercive apparatus, the degree of civil society development and spread of modern information and communication technology. In this context, special attention is paid to the interaction between the national structural contexts, actions of the opposing sides and international interference. The mechanisms used by the ruling regimes in order to eliminate the revolutionary threat to its power are explored. Special attention is paid to manipulation of identity conflicts as a means to prevent the formation of consensus around the necessity of radical changes. The ability of revolutionary opposition to present its struggle as a national and not moved by the group interests is considered as an important factor behind its success.

Multivariate analysis of political transition in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen – the states where revolutionary movements were able to oust the authoritarian leaders (with or without foreign assistance) is conducted. The impact of structural conditions (national unity, presence of deep-rooted social conflicts, functionality of state institutions, status of the army, the degree of civil society and civic culture development, geopolitical positions of the state) and decisions and actions of the main political actors, both domestic and international, are taken into account. The process of ideological and political polarization in a postrevolutionary period is analyzed and destructive nature of “zero sum game” confrontation is demonstrated. Tunisia proved to be the only winner in a democratic transition not only because of its structural advantages but also because of its political elite ability to compromise.

The idea of a non-linearity of transition is confirmed and developed in the research. Three models of political transition are distinguished: from authoritarian to democratic political system (Tunisia); from authoritarian state through political instability and temporary opening of political system to return of authoritarianism in a modified from (Egypt); from authoritarian system through political instability and deep social and political polarization and fragmentation of power to the collapse of the state and the civil war (Libya, Yemen). Prognosis for the possible development of regime transformation in the near future is made.

The preconditions, nature and dynamics of the revolutionary movements in 2004 and 2013-2014 in Ukraine are examined through comparison with the revolutionary process in the Arab world. National component of Ukrainian revolutions is accentuated as a factor that determined their specificity. The effect of identity conflicts and sub-national regional differences on the development of the revolutionary confrontation is scrutinized. Рolitical reforms in Ukraine as a result of both revolutions (2004 and 2013-2014) are analyzed. Incompletion of the regime transformation as well as preservation of the factors that may lead to another retreat back to autocracy are ascertained.

Key words: Arab world, revolution, political regime, transition, democracy, Ukraine.