Information on the thesis

The  dissertation  is  devoted  to  the  problem  of  financial  forecasting  of  the Ukrainian real economy. The dissertation shows the status and the specific of usage of
financial forecasting mechanisms in the national economy, indicated the problems of
limited  theoretical  researching  of  this  area  and  the  lack  of  understanding  the
importance  of  forecasting  for  effective  adaptation  of  individual  entities  or  the  real
sector or the economy as a whole to the changing economic environment.
Improved terminology of the subject of the research which allowed highlighting
the necessity for a comprehensive studying of the future, in order to forming a holistic
view of the expected financial position of the studied subject.  Improved methods of
forecasting  and  assessing  the  impact  of  foreign  trade  operations  on  the  financial
position  and  opportunities  of  the  real  sector  of  the  national  economy  by  creating
„Forecast-evaluation  model  of  financial  capacity  and  export  competitiveness  of  the
national  economy  and  its  key  components“  and  „Forecast-evaluation  model  of
necessity of the Ukrainian economy in imported products“.
Also,  improved  the  methodology  for  assessing  and  forecasting  the  financial
capacity  of  the  Ukrainian  real  economy  through  the  formation  of  multifactor  model
based at relationships between such financial indicators as net profit, discount rate, US
dollar  rate,  the  volume  of  bank  loans,  foreign  direct  investments  and  fixed  assets.
Based on the developed multi-criteria models predicted values of net profit of the main
branches of real sector of Ukrainian economy.
Improved  the  approaches  to  using  linear,  logarithmic  and  exponential  trend
through  their  combined  use,  which  is  intended  to  neutralize  the  shortcomings  and
improve  the  accuracy  of  forecasting.  Formed  the  recommendations  concerning
improvement of institutional supporting of financial forecasting the development of the
Ukrainian real economy, particularly showing the necessity to form new and reforming
existing commercial and state institutions of financial forecasting.
Further developed mechanisms of Foresight as innovative methods of forecasting
and managing of future financial and economic processes, pointed the advantages of its
using  –  establishing  the  links  between  the  financial  forecasting,  managing  decisions
based  on  such  forecasting  and  implementation  of  this  decisions,  further  developed
approaches  to  assessment  the  financial  capacity  of  the  real  sector  of  Ukrainian
economy, researching opportunities of global stock markets as a source of high-quality
forecasting  financial  information  and  determined  prospects  of  stock  markets  for
information supporting processes of management decisions in the economy of Ukraine.
Structured methods of financial forecasting through application of multi-criteria
approach,  which  helped  to  summarize  best  models  for  making  financial  projections
highlighted  the  main  criteria.  Further  developed  practice  of  assessing  the  financial
potential  through  the  use  of  expert  survey  for  financial  forecasting  to  facilitate  the
counting  of  informal  factors  of  economic  phenomena  and  processes  and  enables  to
increase  the  effectiveness  of  management  decisions  on  the  development  of  the  real
sector of the national economy.
Formed forecast of the global economy and indicated the necessary measures to
protect the national economy from the effects of the global crisis.
Keywords:  financial  forecasting,  the  real  economy,  development,  the  financial
potential of the real economy, financial indicators, Foresight, adaptation, management
impact.